New issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance: need for key rate forecast publication; impact of population ageing on inflation

Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation in English

A changing structure of the population can weigh on long-term inflation trends. However, this effect in advanced economies has proved reverse to emerging economy countries. This subject is discussed in an article published in the new issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance (No. 4, 2018).
Another two articles belong to the latest research area – forecasting enabled by big data: news analysis helps forecast economic activity, while machine learning is used to forecast inflation.
In September, the Bank of Russia held an international macroprudential stress testing workshop. The journal presents a summary of this event including key discussion points based on findings from the ten presentations made by global central bank representatives and the IMF.
The issue concludes with a scholarly discussion centred on the need for the Bank of Russia to publish key rate forecasts. In a prior issue of the Russian Journal of Finance and Money, First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva explained why it is best for now to withhold forward guidance – a central bank’s publications of a key rate forecast aimed at improved communications in an inflation targeting regime. In the current issue, the economists Alex Isakov, Petr Grishin and Oleg Gorlinsky present their studies of forward guidance practices at central banks ­– to conclude otherwise.
21 December 2018

MIL OSI