Inflation review. July 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

In July 2019, a temporary acceleration in annual inflation is observed. The annual growth in consumer prices went up by 0.3 percentage points and amounted to 6%.
In July against June 2019, consumer prices increased by 0.2%.

Growth of consumer prices(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Dynamics of consumer prices(on a year-on-year basis)

Core inflation(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Administratively regulated prices and tariffs(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Seasonal prices (for fruits and vegetables)(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Aggregated indicator of the trend inflation(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

General characteristics of changes in the consumer prices
In July 2019, the acceleration in annual growth rate of consumer prices was facilitated by the corresponding dynamics of seasonal prices, as well as regulated prices and tariffs. At that, the slowdown in core inflation continued.
Annual core inflation declined by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%. Its slowdown is largely due to the gradual exhaustion of the impact of market shock in the agricultural market.
Trend inflation in the past three months has remained almost at the same level. The indicator’s annual growth rate in July 2019 totaled 4.5%. The average growth rate of consumer prices accounted for 4.3%.
In July 2019, regulated prices and tariffs went up by 8.7% in annual terms (8.1% a month earlier). The acceleration of prices for this group of goods and services is mainly associated with an increase in the cost of mobile services, housing and communal services (hot water supply), as well as a rise in the cost of tobacco products. However, on July 21, retail prices for automotive fuel were reduced.
For information: In 2019, approaches to increasing the cost of housing services changed. The growth is carried out in 2 stages: on January 1, services of gas-, electricity- and water supply, water disposal, overhaul, sanitary maintenance of auxiliary premises went up, on June 1 – hot water and heating services. At that, the influence of increasing the cost of heating services will affect the overall growth in consumer prices only after the start of the heating season.
High volatility remains in the annual dynamics of seasonal prices, due to significant differences in the weather conditions of the current and last year’s summer periods. Thus, the annual increase in prices for fruits and vegetables grew from 4% in June to 13.1% in July. An unfavorable weather factor formed at the beginning of the month led to a rise in prices for tomatoes that is not typical for a given period of the year (monthly growth stood at 22.9%). As a result, the overall decline in prices for fruits and vegetables in July 2019 was less significant than a year earlier.

Dynamics of consumer prices(on a year-on-year basis)

Dynamics of inflation indicators(on a year-on-year basis)

Methodological explanations   Archive

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