On August 14 the refinancing rate will amount to 9.5% per annum (Press release)

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

On August 14, 2019, the refinancing rate will be reduced from 10% to 9.5% per annum and the rate on overnight credit – from 11.5% to 10.75% per annum and that on overnight deposit – from 8.5% to 8.25% per annum.
The corresponding decisions were taken by the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus following the results of the meeting on monetary policy held on August 7, 2019.
In 2019 Q2, the intensity of inflationary processes slowed down. The assessment of consumer price growth, excluding seasonality for 2019 Q2, shows its decrease below the target level being 5% (during the previous three quarters, the growth was higher than this indicator).
The decisions taken in the field of interest rate policy ensure that it remains neutral in the context of the forecasted deceleration in inflation processes and the achievement of the inflation target for 2019.
The reduction in overnight credit and overnight deposit rates will narrow the interest rate collar on instruments designed to regulate banks’ liquidity and will increase the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
Further decisions in the field of the National Bank’s key interest rates will depend on the correlation between inflationary and deflationary factors.
The next meeting on monetary policy of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus is planned for November 6, 2019.

MIL OSI

On August 1, 2019, gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Republic of Belarus totaled USD8.6 billion (Press release)

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

As of August 1, 2019, the volume of international reserve assets of the Republic of Belarus according to the preliminary data accounted for USD8,627.9 million in the equivalent.
In July 2019, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by USD337.1 million (by 4.1%) after a growth in June 2019 by USD200.8 million (by 2.5%).
In July 2019, the Government and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus fulfilled external and internal foreign exchange obligations worth about USD500 million.
The purchase of foreign exchange by the National Bank at the JSC “Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange”, receipt of funds in foreign exchange to the budget, including export duties on oil and oil products, as well as proceeds from the sale of bonds denominated in foreign exchange by the Ministry of Finance, were conductive to the growth of the level of gold and foreign exchange reserves in July.
According to Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2019, the volume of international reserve assets as of January 1, 2020 should be at least USD7.1 billion.

MIL OSI

Official average exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against foreign currencies for July, 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

Exchange rate indices of the belarusian ruble against foreign currencies (calculated as the geometric mean)

Period
Official average exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble
to US Dollar
to Euro
to 100 Russian Rubles
January
2.1574
2.4637
3.2187
February
2.1539
2.4457
3.2736
January – February
2.1557
2.4547
3.2460
March
2.1262
2.4071
3.2659
January – March
2.1458
2.4387
3.2526
April
2.1156
2.3780
3.2746
January – April
2.1382
2.4234
3.2581
May
2.0918
2.3402
3.2273
January – May
2.1288
2.4065
3.2519
June
2.0688
2.3335
3.2213
April – June
2.0920
2.3505
3.2410
January – June
2.1187
2.3942
3.2468
July
2.0364
2.2862
3.2215
January – July
2.1068
2.3785
3.2432

Exchange rate indices of the belarusian ruble against foreign currencies (calculated as the arithmetical mean)

Period
Official average exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble
to US Dollar
to Euro
to 100 Russian Rubles
January
2.1577
2.4637
3.2157
February
2.1550
2.4468
3.2731
January – February
2.1564
2.4557
3.2429
March
2.1269
2.4074
3.2648
January – March
2.1462
2.4390
3.2505
April
2.1155
2.3769
3.2738
January – April
2.1386
2.4235
3.2563
May
2.0940
2.3434
3.2305
January – May
2.1294
2.4070
3.2510
June
2.0688
2.3329
3.2213
April – June
2.0928
2.3510
3.2417
January – June
2.1194
2.3948
3.2461
July
2.0361
2.2866
3.2215
January – July
2.1072
2.3789
3.2425

Methodological comments:
Methodological comments to calculation of indicators are given in section 7 “Methodological notes to the tables of the Bulletin of Banking Statistics.

MIL OSI

Issues on cooperation between the central banks of Belarus and Lithuania were discussed at the meeting in Pinsk (Information statement)

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

Topical issues of cooperation of the central banks of Belarus and Lithuania were considered on July 26, 2019 in Pinsk during the working visit of the Bank of Lithuania delegation to Belarus.
In the course of negotiations, the parties, led by Pavel Kallaur, Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, and Vitas Vasiliauskas, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania, discussed social and economic development of the two countries, specific features of implementing monetary policy by the central banks and the prospective areas of cooperation between them. The issues of developing digital technologies in the banking sectors of Belarus and Lithuania were reviewed as well.

MIL OSI

Topical issues of monetary policy were considered at the enlarged meeting of the Board of the National Bank (Press release)

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

The issues of ensuring price and financial stability in 2019 H1, as well as creating an efficient market of non-performing assets were considered at the enlarged meeting of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus held on July 25, 2019.
In 2019 H1, the actual level of annual inflation somewhat outpaced the target indicator, which was due to temporary factors, the influence of which is gradually being exhausted. A further decrease in the intensity of inflation processes is expected. According to the National Bank’s estimates, the inflation will stabilize at around 5% by the end of the year.
Monetary conditions prevailing in 2019 Q2, reflecting the overall impact of interest rates and the exchange rate on the economy, generally remained neutral.
In order to maintain financial stability in 2019 H1, the work aimed at limiting systemic risks, preserving the level of gold and foreign exchange reserves and improving their structure, reducing foreign currency predominance in the economy, ensuring secure functioning of banks and other financial institutions, as well as the efficient operation of the payment system was continued.
Collectively, the results achieved in the field of price and financial stability form favorable conditions and the basis for the sustainable development of the Belarusian economy.
In respect of the efficiency of managing banks’ non-performing assets and creating a distressed debt market in Belarus, it was noted that currently credit risk remains the most significant one for Belarusian banks. The issue of banks’ non-performing assets is in the focus of attention not only of the National Bank, but also the Government and the Head of State.
In particular, the National Bank will assess the credit risk (in addition to other types of risks) within the framework of the new supervisory instrument – the general supervisory review (SREP). For this purpose, both quantitative indicator system based on banks’ reporting and a judgment on the corporate governance quality, including risk management, will be used. Special attention of banking supervision will be given to the activities carried out by banks to reduce the share of non-performing assets.
In addition, the National Bank and the Government prepared a draft Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus “On Certain Issues of Dealing with Non-performing Assets”, which regulates the economic and legal conditions for functioning of the non-performing assets market. Its objective is to organize work on the most transparent and market basics.
The implementation of the draft Decree will create favorable conditions for the development of the non-performing assets market, strengthen the debtors’ payment discipline, stimulate interest in the proper fulfillment of obligations, help create a positive investment climate and develop the business environment and, as a result, increase the financial and macroeconomic stability in the country.
The texts of the reports of Dmitry Murin, Head of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Directorate, “Ensuring Price and Financial Stability in 2019 H1” and Dmitry Lapko, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank, “Efficiency of Managing Non-performing Assets: Assessment, Regulation, Distressed Debt Market” will be published on the National Bank’ website on July 26, 2019.

MIL OSI

Estimated values of standard risk on the instruments of the credit and deposit market for August 2019 were published

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

Since March 1, 2019, the National Bank put in place a set of measures of macroprudential nature designed to limit systemic risks generated by the business models of banks with high appetite for risk.
The basis of this system is formed by the approach, according to which the strengthened regulatory requirements in the area of capital adequacy, build-up of special provisions to cover potential losses and allocation of the required reserves fund are applied. An excess of the interest rates on new deposits, credits and issued bonds set by banks over the corresponding estimated values of standard risk (hereinafter – the “EVSR”) is used as an indicator of the increased level of risk of the business models implemented by banks.
The EVSR are calculated by the National Bank every month on the basis of average interest rates on six financial instruments of the credit and deposit market in the national currency of systemically important banks attributed to the Group of Importance 1:
new term revocable bank deposits of natural persons;
– new term irrevocable bank deposits of natural persons ( across maturity buckets: from 1 to 6 months (inclusively); from 6 months to 1 year (inclusively); and over 1 year);
– new credits issued to natural and legal persons (excluding credits issued on preferential terms by the decisions of the President and Government of the Republic of Belarus at the expense of republican and local authorities’ funds).
The algorithm of the EVSR calculation is based on the arithmetic average and the degree of variation of interest rates taken into account.
The EVSR for new term bank deposits is calculated on the basis of data on average interest rates on natural persons’ deposits and used for deposits of both natural and legal persons.
Table – Values of Estimated Standard Risk, % per annum

List of indicators
Value, % per annum
March 2019
April 2019
May 2019
June 2019
July 2019
August 2019

EVSR for new term revocable bank deposits of natural and legal persons

7.79
7.97
7.91
7.79
7.60
7.45

EVSR for new term irrevocable bank deposits of natural and legal persons with maturity from 1 to 6 months (inclusively)

9.67
9.79
10.06
9.86
9.69
9.67

EVSR for new term irrevocable bank deposits of natural and legal persons with maturity from 6 months to 1 year (inclusively)

10.59
10.65
10.96
10.84
10.71
10.72

EVSR for new term irrevocable bank deposits of natural and legal persons with maturity over 1 year

12.66
12.74
12.94
12.98
12.93
12.94

EVSR for new credits issued to legal persons (excluding those issued on preferential terms)

11.87
11.99
12.04
12.00
11.84
11.84

EVSR for new credits issued to natural persons (excluding those issued on preferential terms)

15.41
15.49
15.55
15.36
14.59
14.50

MIL OSI

Inflation review. June 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

In June 2019, the annual increase in consumer prices slowed down by 0.5 percentage points and amounted to 5.7%.
In June 2019, consumer prices declined by 0.06% versus May

Growth of consumer prices(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Dynamics of consumer prices(on a year-on-year basis)

Core inflation(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Administratively regulated prices and tariffs(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Seasonal prices (for fruits and vegetables)(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

Aggregated indicator of the trend inflation(% to the corresponding month of the previous year)

General characteristics of changes in the consumer prices
In June 2019, annual growth rates of key price indicators of the consumer market slowed down.
Annual core inflation declined from 5.2% in May to 4.8% in June 2019. Less intensive dynamics of this indicator is largely associated with the weakening of the impact of market shock in the market of meat products.
The accelerated growth of prices for meat and meat products began in June 2018 and has been continued till the end of the year. As a result, the core inflation was higher than the trend one. The current growth rates of prices for meat products will contribute, under the condition of lack of impact of other shocks, to further slowing down of core inflation in annual terms and approaching of the level of trend inflation thereby.
For information: at the end of 2019 H2, the prices for meat and meat products dropped by 0.7% (June 2019 to December 2018).
The trend inflation slowed down by 0.1 percentage point in annual terms and totaled 4.5% in June 2019. The average intensity of consumer prices growth declined to 4.2% (4.6% a month earlier).
The annual growth of regulated prices and tariffs stood at 8.1% in June 2019 (8.2% a month earlier). On the whole, the dynamics of prices and tariffs for regulated positions in annual terms has been preserved, practically, at the same level over the last four months.
After their acceleration in May up to 9.5% the annual growth rates of prices for fruits and vegetables dropped to 4% in June 2019, with the slowing down of the annual gowth rates for white cabbage after a long-term period of accelerated growth (since November 2018) and for the majority of other types of vegetables contributing to this process to a considerable degree. At the same time, the growth rates of prices for potatoes went up to a significant degree. The annual growth rates of prices for fruits were positive and constrained the general decrease in seasonal prices as well.

Dynamics of consumer prices(on a year-on-year basis)

Dynamics of inflation indicators(on a year-on-year basis)

Methodological explanations   Archive

MIL OSI

International reserves and foreign currency liquidity of the Republic of Belarus as of July 1, 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

USD mln
I. Official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets (approximate market value)
8,513.3
A. Official reserve assets
8,290.7
1. Foreign currency reserves (in convertible foreign currencies)
4,570.4
a. Securities
225.5
of which: issuer headquartered in reporting country but located abroad
0.0
b. Total currency and deposits
4,345.0
(i) other national central bank, BIS and IMF
715.0
(ii) bank headquatered in the reporting country
0.0
of which: located abroad
0.0
(iii) bank headquatered outside the reporting country
3,630.0
of which: located in the reporting country
0.0
2. IMF reserve position
0.0
3. SDRs
517.6
4. Gold (including gold deposits)
2,200.1
– volume in millions of fine troy ounces
1.6
5. Other reserve assets (specify)
1,002.6
– financial derivatives
0.0
– loans to nonbank nonresidents
0.0
– externally managed assets
0.0
– repo assets
1,002.6
– other
0.0
B. Other foreign currency assets not included in official reserve assets (specify)*
222.6
– securities
0.0
– deposits
222.6
– loans
0.0
– financial derivatives
0.0
– gold
0.0
– other
0.0
II. Predetermined short-term net drains on foreign currency assets (nominal value)

Total
Maturity breakdown(residual maturity)
up to 1 month
more than 1 and up to 3 month
more than 3 month and up to 1 year
1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits
-3,955.0
-520.4
-795.2
-2,639.4
Outflows (–)
-4,179.3
-583.8
-817.4
-2,778.0
Principal
-3,143.8
-481.8
-549.9
-2,112.1
Interest
-1,035.4
-102.0
-267.5
-665.9
Inflows (+)**
224.2
63.4
22.2
138.6
Principal
157.7
49.1
17.5
91.1
Interest
66.6
14.4
4.6
47.5
2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwardsand futures in foreign currencies vis-à-visthe domestic currency (including the forward legof currency swaps)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
a. Short positions (–)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
b. Long positions (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3. Other (specify)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
II. Contingent short-term net drains on foreign currency assets (nominal value)

Total
Maturity breakdown(residual maturity, where applicable)
up to 1 month
more than 1 and up to 3 month
more than 3 month and up to 1 year
1. Contingent liabilities in foreign currency
-1,468.3
-869.0
-9.5
-589.8
1.1. Collateral guarantees on debt falling due within 1 year
-779.5
-180.3
-9.5
-589.8
1.2. Other contingent liabilities
-688.8
-688.8
0.0
0.0
2. Foreign currency securities issuedwith embedded options (puttable bonds)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3. Undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided by:***
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1. Other national monetary authorities, BIS, IMF,and other international organizations
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
other national monetary authorities (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
BIS (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IMF (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
other international organizations (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2. With banks and other financial institutions headquartered in the reporting country (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3. With banks and other financial institutions headquartered outside the reporting country (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4. Undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided to:
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1. Other national monetary authorities, BIS, IMF,and other international organizations
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
other national monetary authorities (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
BIS (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IMF (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
other international organizations (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2. With banks and other financial institutions headquartered in the reporting country (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.3. With banks and other financial institutions headquartered outside the reporting country (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5. Aggregate short and long positions of options in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
a. Short positions
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Bought puts
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Written calls
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
b. Long positions
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Bought calls
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Written puts
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV. Memo items
1. To be reported with standard periodicity and timeliness:
1.1. Short–term domestic currency debt indexed to the exchange rate
0.0
1.2. Financial instruments denominated in foreign currency and settled by other means(e.g., in domestic currency)
0.0
derivatives (forwards, futures, or options contracts)
0.0
short positions
0.0
long positions
0.0
other instruments
0.0
1.3. Pledged assets
0.0
included in reserve assets
0.0
included in other foreign currency assets
0.0
1.4. Securities lent and on repo
1,002.6
lent or repoed and included in Section I
0.0
lent or repoed but not included in Section I
0.0
borrowed or acquired and included in Section I
0.0
borrowed or acquired but not included in Section I
1,002.6
1.5. Financial derivative assets (net, marked to market)
0.0
– forvards
0.0
– futures
0.0
– swaps
0.0
– options
0.0
– other
0.0
1.6. Derivatives (forward, futures, or options contracts) that have a residual maturitygreater than one year
0.0
– aggregate short and long positions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps)
(a) Short positions
0.0
(b) Long positions
0.0
– aggregate short and long positions of options in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency
a. Short positions
0.0
Bought puts
0.0
Written calls
0.0
b. Long positions
0.0
Bought calls
0.0
Written puts
0.0
2. To be disclosed less frequently (data is presented at the end of the quarter):
2.1. Currency composition of reserves (by groups of currencies)
Foreign currency reserves, total
8,290.7
– currencies in SDR basket
8,281.4
currencies not in SDR basket
9.3

* Liquid assets (foreign currency and monetary gold) that don’t meet the investment grade of the rating scales Fitch Ratings, Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Service.
** Inflows of foreign currency include those relating to scheduled foreign currency obligations due to the authorities on outstandinf loans and securities that are not covered in Section I.
*** Item is used for reporting undrawn, unconditional credit lines only.

MIL OSI

Interest rates on the credit and deposit market, June 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

2018
January – december 2018
2019
January
June
January
March
April
May
June
A. Average interest rates in Belarusian rubles
1. On newly attracted bank deposits
legal persons*
demand
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
up to 1 year
5.75
6.83
6.61
6.97
7.74
7.74
7.88
7.71
over 1 year
7.37
8.44
7.40
8.35
8.74
8.48
9.93
10.60
natural persons
demand
0.19
0.19
0.26
0.19
0.64
0.14
0.16
0.36
up to 1 year
6.63
8.20
8.20
8.72
8.82
8.78
8.95
9.03
over 1 year
10.00
11.37
11.13
11.85
12.21
12.34
12.59
12.62
2. On banks’ newly extended credits
legal persons
up to 1 year
11.62
11.43
11.30
11.13
11.21
11.36
11.42
11.34
over 1 year
11.41
10.62
10.61
10.78
10.46
9.92
10.86
10.77
natural persons
up to 1 year
9.61
9.27
9.03
9.13
9.55
9.28
9.52
9.33
over 1 year
11.42
11.61
11.32
10.89
11.44
11.42
11.68
11.75
B. Average interest rates in foreign exchange
3. On newly attracted bank deposits
legal persons*
demand
0.20
0.11
0.12
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10

up to 1 year
1.62
1.02
1.20
0.98
1.59
1.27
1.45
1.05
over 1 year
1.86
1.53
1.43
1.61
1.65
1.79
1.88
0.75
natural persons
demand
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
up to 1 year
0.67
0.63
0.65
0.76
0.79
0.88
0.83
0.77
over 1 year
1.62
1.71
1.64
2.23
2.36
2.32
2.12
2.36
4. On banks’ newly extended credits
legal persons
up to 1 year
5.23
4.72
4.68
4.28
4.26
4.36
4.56
4.42
over 1 year
6.29
5.43
5.82
6.05
5.34
5.24
5.54
5.40
natural persons
up to 1 year








over 1 year







Methodological comments:
Methodological comments to calculation of indicators are given in section 7 “Methodological notes to the tables of the Bulletin of Banking Statistics.
* By 2015 – legal persons and government agencies; from 2015 – legal persons.

MIL OSI

Main performance indices and participants of the Belarus interbank settlement system, January – June 2019

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in English

Indices
January – June, 2018
January – June, 2019
Deviation
(clm.3–clm.2)
(clm.3/clm.2)*100-100, %
1
2
3
4
5
1. Effected payment instructions
 
 
 
 
1.1. By number, thou units
37,533.9
39,328.3
1,794.4
4.8
1.2. By value, mln rubles BYN
276,505.0
326,101.9
49,597.0
17.9
2. Average daily turnover
 
 
 
 
2.1. By number, thou units
300.3
319.7
19.5
6.5
2.2. By value, mln rubles BYN
2,212.0
2,651.2
439.2
19.9
3. Average size of payment instruction, thousand rubles BYN
7.4
8.3
0.9
12.6
4. Canceled payment instructions
 
 
 
 
4.1. By number, units
0
0
0.0
X
% of the total amount conducted payment instructions
0.000
0.000
 
 
4.2. By value, thousand rubles BYN
0.0
0.0
0.0
X
% of the total amount conducted payment instructions
0.000
0.000
 
 
5. Сoefficient of accessibility*,%
99.96
100.00
X
X

Indices
January – December, 2017
January – December, 2018
Deviation
(clm.3–clm.2)
(clm.3/clm.2)*100-100, %
1
2
3
4
5
1. Effected payment instructions
 
 
 
 
1.1. By number, thou units
73,006.2
77,971.3
4,965.1
6.8
1.2. By value, mln rubles BYN
565,768.6
578,751.2
12,982.6
2.3
2. Average daily turnover
 
 
 
 
2.1. By number, thou units
288.6
308.2
19.6
6.8
2.2. By value, mln rubles BYN
2,236.2
2,287.6
51.3
2.3
3. Average size of payment instruction, thousand rubles BYN
7.7
7.4
-0.3
-4.2
4. Canceled payment instructions
 
 
 
 
4.1. By number, units
0
0
0.00
X
% of the total amount conducted payment instructions
0.000
0.000
 
 
4.2. By value, thousand rubles BYN
0.0
0.0
0.0
X
% of the total amount conducted payment instructions
0.000
0.000
 
 
5. Сoefficient of accessibility*,%
99.99
99.98
X
X

* This indicator shows the ASIS’s (Automated System of Interbank Settlements) readiness to carry out interbank settlements, including the acceptance, processing, and transfer of electronic payment documents during the time stipulated by the timetable for the BISS acceptance and processing of electronic payment documents and electronic messages from the participants of the BISS.

MIL OSI